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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.